Freih
Observer
Posts: 347
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Post by Freih on Dec 23, 2012 22:17:56 GMT
While players could leave it up to luck, skillful accusations coupled with timely Flying Under the Radar should determine the winner... unless you all leave it up to chance. I'm not certain about that. Even if 10k - the person who had the most antes at the end of round two - had correctly accused every cheater this last round, and not accused Cyrus wrongly, he still wouldn't have beaten Cyrus.
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Post by 10k on Dec 24, 2012 0:05:54 GMT
While players could leave it up to luck, skillful accusations coupled with timely Flying Under the Radar should determine the winner... unless you all leave it up to chance. I'm not certain about that. Even if 10k - the person who had the most antes at the end of round two - had correctly accused every cheater this last round, and not accused Cyrus wrongly, he still wouldn't have beaten Cyrus. I'm fine with the result, since I designed this game where strategies will produce optimal results in the long-term. So a hyperturbo game like this is definitely open to variability, and possibly the main game as well (I originally wanted a last-man standing, but then figured we'd be here forever, so I compromised). It's part of the reason you see the unusual prize structure for this game: if you have a relatively high skill level, you should be making entry refunds or 1st place prize most of the time you play; that is, your skill pays off long-term. In this game, the stars aligned perfectly for Cyrus: he got the best roll in the most important round, whereas I got the best roll in an unimportant round. The rehearsal was a one-chance event, so it's impossible to get a chance to catch back up as the game ended...but there are MANY more chances in the main game, where one round (probably) won't shake the entire rankings: it's the long-term build-up of all the other rounds. I'll make a couple of public comments as creator/player (so take with a grain of salt!): 1. I'm leaning towards $100-150 to start, so given the choice between $200 and $250, I guess it's $200. There was a lot more accusing than I thought there would be, and if one person is going to suicide themselves calling honest people, the game could devolve into a no-rigging contest while they wait for the manic accuser to die. That would be fine if this was a battle royal, but there are only so many turns in the main game, so manic accusers need an additional incentive to not be manic: give them a shorter life expectancy. 2. The game had 2/12 proper accusations, which means 83% of all calls were bad. About half of those came from accusing the top superstrong hands, which happened to be honest. I won't provide further analysis, but I think that data is worth stating so everyone can draw meaningful conclusions. 3. We didn't get much data on flying under the radar (maybe from all that accusing?) but the more I'm thinking about it, the more I'm liking it. Oh, and thanks for dealing the rehearsal, Alydar. I'm looking forward to the main game.
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Post by Alydar on Dec 24, 2012 5:25:19 GMT
Sure, let's say that, in that single round, no one could have beaten Cyrus, assuming he didn't accuse anyone, which he had no reason to. Unless, for whatever reason, we had people accusing 10k in order to push him into the lead. Yes, a suicide tactic could have worked. Cyrus had to gain 32 Antes while others would lose 8. He had no reason to accuse anyone, so he wouldn't. The places would be as follows with no accusations: Cyrus = 14, 10k = 10, Moritaka = 4, Iain7 = -12, Freih = -16, ignoring Flying Under the Radar. That's not a blowout by any means. IF there were an alliance that was focused against Cyrus and for whatever reason cared that he not be in first place, they could have pushed 10k into first. Say Cyrus had cheated. A single accusation would be enough to stop his victory, so that's all that would be needed. If you're wrong, that's 12 Antes given to him, but that same player could also target 10k, evening out the difference. 10k is still 4 behind in the worst-case scenario. All that's required is for 10k to be wrongly accused once more, or for 10k to correctly accuse, and he'd be in the lead. I chose the (at-the-time) 2nd-place 10k, but that SAME strategy would have worked to put 3rd-place Moritaka in the lead, so you even had options there! So don't say there was nothing you could have done when you didn't even try. You just assumed, worked separately to your own goals, and look where it left you! If that's not enough to convince you that the final round wasn't unbalanced, in the real game, there would be 3 more rounds with the same antes, so there would be 3 full rounds to balance that out. If he got that lucky in the rest of the rounds, I'd be seriously checking my dice and maybe even switching them out for new dice. In addition, there would be 6 other lower-ante rounds beforehand that might have even eliminated a player or two! Another unlucky round would have eliminated Cyrus from $100! ...which brings us to the next point of discussion: amount of money. A lucky 6-6-6 in the final round(s) takes $40 from each player. Each player who accuses that lucky player gives $60 to him. Those players have just lost their full starting $100 and may be out of the game, assuming they haven't profited from earlier rounds. Even still, they're likely to lose in following rounds unless they get lucky. That's what I don't want to happen. $150 may be enough. It may be, but I really don't know. $250 is likely way too much. $200 is probably a better safe estimate, though it also has more money in play which may simply amount to players not being eliminated. Without further testing, I can't say for sure which is better, so I'm going to say $200 is best, even if that may be wrong. There probably is some nice number somewhere that balances eliminations and antes well, but I don't have the time or playtesters to determine what that number is. So we're going to have to try things. However, I can definitely say that $100 is too much, considering I don't want this to be a last-man-standing contest. I'd much prefer at least 3 standing at the end from the starting 5.
So, if anyone has any comments about (1) the balance of luck-vs.-strategy in this game or (2) the starting sum allotted to players, speak now or forever hold your peace.
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Freih
Observer
Posts: 347
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Post by Freih on Dec 24, 2012 8:53:56 GMT
Yes, of course two people allied with 10k could put him in the lead if they wanted to. I didn't say nothing could have done - I just said that 10k doing accusations perfectly was not enough, and I don't feel that's right (unless there was an alliance working to push Cyrus in the lead).
And I fully realize that in the long term the role of luck diminished, I just don't think four rounds is long term enough. In four rounds, there are 20 throws, and without rigging, 2 of them are expected to be 1-2-3 pr higher. So only 2/5 people are expected to luck out, which doesn't seem fair (I know that is only an estimate). 12 rounds is long-term, but what actually matters is lucking out in level 3.
Anyway, about the starting money I fully agree with 10k that 100-150 is best. So out of 200 and 250 I would go with 200. As for the reason, it's because I feel like winning in the first two levels wouldn't mean much if we started with more money, and starting short-funded increases the incentive for cheating.
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Post by Alydar on Dec 24, 2012 17:05:48 GMT
Yes, of course two people allied with 10k could put him in the lead if they wanted to. I didn't say nothing could have done - I just said that 10k doing accusations perfectly was not enough, and I don't feel that's right (unless there was an alliance working to push Cyrus in the lead). The only reason for that is that OTHER PEOPLE accused Cyrus. If we get rid of those accusations and give 10k perfect accusations, 10k DOES reach first place with 18 Antes over Cyrus' 14. The accusations of Cyrus are what put him in an unreachable place, and the three of them that were made gave him 36 Antes. While the 32 Antes he gained from winning the round made that much more likely he would win, it didn't make it at all definite until he was accused. And that's also in how he played the game. If you'd note, no one accused Freih, so they must have thought his 4-5-6 was legit. Either that, or they thought it didn't matter. But if you're going to limit the scenarios down to only the current one, only changing 10k's actions, of course it won't change anything. But he's not the only one playing the game, and each person's actions will have some effect on the end outcome. Why, if players had worked together, even Iain7, the last-place cheater, could have been brought to 1st place! Or Freih, who had also fallen behind! What I'm saying is that his win was far from sealed at the beginning of the Round 3 Accusation Phase. Once accusations began pouring in, it was. But there's strategy in accusations, and so far it would seem like none of you are playing to them. If you want strategy to play a part in the game, that's on you, and I can tell you that while luck can be a factor, it won't be a determining factor, even if you all believe it is. And I fully realize that in the long term the role of luck diminished, I just don't think four rounds is long term enough. In four rounds, there are 20 throws, and without rigging, 2 of them are expected to be 1-2-3 pr higher. So only 2/5 people are expected to luck out, which doesn't seem fair (I know that is only an estimate). 12 rounds is long-term, but what actually matters is lucking out in level 3. Anyway, about the starting money I fully agree with 10k that 100-150 is best. So out of 200 and 250 I would go with 200. As for the reason, it's because I feel like winning in the first two levels wouldn't mean much if we started with more money, and starting short-funded increases the incentive for cheating. If you guys really want it, I'll cede to bringing it down to $150, but I still think it may be too little. I suppose time will tell, though...
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Post by Iain7 on Dec 24, 2012 18:44:48 GMT
LOL that's what I get for paying little attention to this trial round xD
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Post by Alydar on Dec 26, 2012 22:28:01 GMT
Here's your notification on the main round! It shall begin on Saturday, December 29th, 2012... at some time that is as of yet unknown. Get ready, and good luck!
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Post by Cyrus on Dec 28, 2012 0:09:10 GMT
Well, I just got back in town after visiting family, and I have to say those trip sixes were 100% strategy, so no worries there. Let's just keep the good times rolling! CYRUS 2012!
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Post by Alydar on Dec 29, 2012 20:30:25 GMT
The main round begins! Check the game thread for more information. I'll be setting up Infiltration for the two of you shortly, in case you were wondering. The first round ends at 8:30 pm GMT on Sunday, December 30th, 2012. If you'd like to rig your dice, send in your rigging before then!
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Post by Alydar on Dec 29, 2012 23:00:17 GMT
FAQs
Q: Can I make decisions ahead of time by PMing you the round and the decision?
A: Yes, you may. This will not lock in your decision for that round, as you can still change it until the end of that round. So if you want to put a plan in action ahead of time, go ahead. You can always change it as needed.
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Post by 10k on Dec 30, 2012 23:42:56 GMT
^Looks like someone's going south for the winter.
So, thoughts on today's rolls? Compared to the last round madness, these are...appropriately tame.
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Post by Cyrus on Dec 31, 2012 1:34:24 GMT
Well, considering the very real possibility of being eliminated, I'd say playing it safe (or rigging gently) is appealing because it allows you to retain your resources for later rounds. Besides, in a game like this (assuming no one cheats) luck should balance things out. And if people do cheat, all you have to do is catch them, which puts you a bit ahead of where luck would put you normally.
I was also a little amused that myself and Moritaka both had no hands, perhaps our payment for coming out ahead during the rehearsal round.
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Post by 10k on Dec 31, 2012 21:14:59 GMT
Friggin' Freih
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Freih
Observer
Posts: 347
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Post by Freih on Jan 1, 2013 20:53:31 GMT
With the risk of stating the obvious, I'm not going to accuse anyone this round. Anyway, it would be a good idea if everyone made their accusation lists public.
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Post by 10k on Jan 1, 2013 21:47:34 GMT
FRIGGIN' FREIH!!
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