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Post by Alydar on Jan 12, 2013 19:50:46 GMT
Just a general note, but I've been getting very few PMs lately. Sure, there's no inactivity penalty for not sending anything in (you simply roll and don't accuse, respectively), but it's nice to hear from you, so I know that you're actively participating in the game and that you actually want that to be your move. So if players could send in their decisions, even if it would be the same as if they did nothing at all, I would appreciate that. Thanks!  |
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Post by Alydar on Jan 13, 2013 6:21:32 GMT
Level 2-3: Rolling PhaseAlydar drums his fingers on the table in boredom. "Well, I suppose we're moving on yet again. Your dice, please?" 10k goes first, and his dice fall well: 3, 5, 3 means a Point 5 and current first place (as always)! Iain7 gives his dice, crossing his fingers for luck but to no avail. 2, 1, 4, and a No Hand gives him nothing. Next comes Cyrus, hoping for luck. Sadly, his 4, 2, 6 don't give him anything but a No Hand. Fourth is Moritaka, hoping to get out of his rut of No Hands. ...sad to say, he doesn't with a 4, 5, 3. Finally, Freih tries to beat 10k's roll and get out of a rut. This gives him a 6, 2, 5 and yet another No Hand. "Well... what poor luck you all have. Has 10k cheated? Will you risk giving him money on a poor accusation? Or on lack of one, for that matter? This looks to be a slow round... Unless... you think to accuse those with No Hands? There have been crazier ideas..." Alydar still appears bored and uninterested, but maybe he'll regain his previous spunk and laughter? Ahah! Hah... well... it's possible? Player
| Rolls
| Placement
| 10k
| | Point 5
| Iain7
| | No Hand
| Cyrus
| | No Hand
| Moritaka
| | No Hand
| Freih
| | No Hand
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Rankings1st place: 10k - Point 5 2nd place: Iain7, Cyrus, Moritaka, Freih - No Hand The Accusation Phase starts now. Please send in a list of any accusations you plan to make this round if you would like to make any. In addition, if you cheated and would like to Fly Under the Radar, please PM me with your intentions to do so. For Level 2, Flying Under the Radar earns a player $10 from each player. Correct Accusations earn $20 to the accuser from the accused, and incorrect Accusations lose $30 from the accuser to the accused. Two cheaters accusing each other lose $30 each to the LGT. You all have 24 hours from this post to send in your decisions by PM to me. This round ends at 6:21 am GMT on Monday, January 14th, 2012. Good luck!
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Post by Alydar on Jan 14, 2013 6:21:35 GMT
Level 2-3: Accusation Phase"What are the chances we'd all get No Hands here? Do we fail so much at 50% chances? Give us a break!" "Well, at least we know no one cheated!" "True that, true that. But what can we do?" "Maybe 10k cheated?" "No, why'd he be so stupid? He's got the win! He's been cheating recently! Cheating again would be too blatant. He's goading us into it, knowing someone will do it." "Alright, then. So we don't accuse! It's simple!" "Well, that is if he's not Double Bluffing us. Remember that game? Ah, good times..." "Yes, didn't Iain7 win that? Sad he couldn't pull his magic here..." "Or like in Memory. I hear they're doing that again!" "Heh, if your memory's any good... Weren't you saying they'd have sodas here? What's with all the punch?" "Hey, someone makes a single mistake, and you hound him forever! I was right about the crackers!" "And now they're gone... Good going." "Hey, there's still some cheese left! Cheddar?" "Nah, it's no good without crackers..." With all the talking you guys are doing (actually it's two guys who snuck in after they heard there was food, but cut them some slack! It's not like they're not rolling dice too, and they're doing better than most of you... :  , you all forgot to make accusations. Too bad, so sad, but I suppose the risk is too much? In the meantime, Alydar comes out of the back room with a platter of crackers and a digital countdown clock, to make the waiting simpler. "Ahaha! Well, it seems you've been enjoying the food, but how's the game been going? It's a lull right now, what with only a single person to accuse, but you'll get more chances! Let's see... No accusations... Well, 10k wins by default. I suppose we should get on to rolling? Get on with deciding to cheat! ...or not." Alydar sets the clock for the right amount of time, starts it... and promptly turns it away from you all. "Carry on! This will ring when time's up!"
AccusationsNo one accuses, no one loses.10k wins with his Point 5. 10k wins $10 from Iain7, Cyrus, Moritaka, and Freih.
Current Standings1st place - 10k: $325 2nd place - Cyrus: $160 3rd place - Iain7: $127.5 4th place - Moritaka: $100 5th place - Freih: $37.5 We begin the final round in Level 2. Soon, the final level will begin, and you'll either make it or break it there. 10k's lead is not yet unbeatable, and he can always be brought down. Is rigging required? As long as you can get away with it... Is rolling fairly required? As long as you can get the luck to win... It's your choice, so choose well. No matter how grim your current situation, much can still happen in the remaining five rounds. If you make it happen, that is. Send in your decisions before 6:21 am GMT on Tuesday, January 15th, 2013.
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Post by Alydar on Jan 14, 2013 22:46:58 GMT
In an attempt to get back onto what may be considered a "normal sleep cycle" by "normal" people, I will likely not be awake at the time of the deadline. Thus, the update for this round will be delayed. Do try to get your decisions in, though, even if it's simply to roll? That would be much appreciated.  |
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Post by Alydar on Jan 15, 2013 15:15:34 GMT
Level 2-4: Rolling PhaseThe bell rings as the display clock winds down, and the players all turn in their dice, hoping for the best. The shakers are shaken, and the dice are rolled... 10k is first, and his 6, 3, 3 gives him a Point 6 and a current lead! Then it's Iain7 again, hoping for better than the hands he's been getting recently. The dice are cast... 3... 1... is it really? ...2. Iain7 rolls a 1-2-3 and scrapes ahead of 10k for the lead! Cyrus crosses his fingers as the dice are rolled. 5, 5, 2, and he has a Point 2 which, while something, doesn't get him the lead. Then Moritaka, hoping for anything; anything other than a No Hand. 2... 5... oh, no... wait! It's a 2! Moritaka has a Point 5 and third place! Finally, Freih rolls, dejected from his position, and his fears come true. 4... 1... 3. A No Hand, and little hope for surviving much longer. "Ahaha! Well, this is admittedly more interesting than last round! Look at all these hands! ...well, except for poor little Freih over there, but what can you do about him? Oh, well. Have any of you cheated? Have none of you? Get to accusing! Ahahahahaha!" Player
| Rolls
| Placement
| 10k
| | Point 6
| Iain7
| | 1-2-3
| Cyrus
| | Point 2
| Moritaka
| | Point 5
| Freih
| | No Hand
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Rankings1st place: Iain7 - 1-2-3 2nd place: 10k - Point 6 3rd place: Moritaka - Point 5 4th place: Cyrus - Point 2 5th place: Freih - No Hand The Accusation Phase starts now. Please send in a list of any accusations you plan to make this round if you would like to make any. In addition, if you cheated and would like to Fly Under the Radar, please PM me with your intentions to do so. For Level 2, Flying Under the Radar earns a player $10 from each player. Correct Accusations earn $20 to the accuser from the accused, and incorrect Accusations lose $30 from the accuser to the accused. Two cheaters accusing each other lose $30 each to the LGT. You all have 24 hours from this post to send in your decisions by PM to me. This round ends at 3:15 pm GMT on Wednesday, January 16th, 2012. Good luck!
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Post by Alydar on Jan 16, 2013 15:15:26 GMT
Level 2-4: Accusation Phase
The players sit in a circle. Alydar figures this will help them sort out their problems better. Instead of accusing, they're playing a nice little game of Duck Duck Goose. The players disagree.
"So how do we accuse?" "Why, by saying 'Goose,' of course!" "But... aren't they supposed to chase us ar-" "Rules, shmules, nonono. Just 'Goose' those you accuse!" "Um... okay."
10k stands up and walks around slowly, tapping each player in turn. "Duck... Duck... Duck... Duck. There, happy?" He sits down.
Iain7 does the same. "Duck, duck, duck, duck."
As does Cyrus...
Then comes Moritaka. "Duck... ... Goose... Goose... ... ... Duck."
And last, as always, Freih. "Duck. Duck. Duck. Duck."
"10k and Iain7 are indeed GEESE!!! ...and the Ducky Accuser Moritaka walks away with a huge gain this round! Congratulations! Ahahahahaha! You all need to take risks like Moritaka here if you want to win!"
Accusations
Moritaka successfully accuses 10k of cheating. Moritaka takes $20 from 10k.
Moritaka successfully accuses Iain7 of cheating. Moritaka takes $20 from Iain7.
With both Iain7's and 10k's hands fake, Moritaka wins with his Point 5!
Moritaka wins $10 from 10k, Iain7, Cyrus, and Freih.
Current Standings
1st place - 10k: $295
2nd place - Moritaka: $180
3rd place - Cyrus: $150
4th place - Iain7: $97.5
5th place - Freih: $27.5
With that, a turnaround looks much more likely! Moritaka suddenly makes a huge jump ahead and accuses two cheaters correctly, also winning the round in the process! Now, we move on to Level 3, where the antes have doubled yet again. Winning gets you a minimum of $20 from each player, as does successfully Flying Under the Radar. These final rounds are what count, and a turnaround at this point is definitely very possible.
Send in your decisions before 3:15 pm GMT on Thursday, January 17th, 2013.
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Post by Alydar on Jan 17, 2013 15:25:34 GMT
Level 3-1: Rolling Phase"Alright, let's get to the decisions! We've doubled the costs once more, and it's time to go for broke! Ahahaha!" 10k rolls, and the dice land low: 1, 2, 2. However, it does get him a Point 1 and current first place. Next is Iain7 with similar numbers: 3, 1, 3. Another Point 1 puts him tied for first place! ...but probably not for long. And not for long is right. Cyrus rolls, in the higher spectrum of numbers: 5, 6, 5. He gets a Point 6 for first place! But will someone beat him? Moritaka's dice are scattered: 4, 6, 1. He gets a No Hand, once again. Freih's aren't scattered, but they fare just as well: 2, 3, 4. He also gets a No Hand, and the round concludes. "Well, we have three up for accusation! Have any of them cheated? Have they all? It's your turn to decide, but choose wisely. A poor decision here might very well cost you the game. Well, there are the remaining three rounds, but... choose wisely. " Player
| Rolls
| Placement
| 10k
| | Point 1
| Iain7
| | Point 1
| Cyrus
| | Point 6
| Moritaka
| | No Hand
| Freih
| | No Hand
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Rankings1st place: Cyrus - Point 6 2nd place: 10k, Iain7 - Point 1 4th place: Moritaka, Freih - No Hand The Accusation Phase starts now. Please send in a list of any accusations you plan to make this round if you would like to make any. In addition, if you cheated and would like to Fly Under the Radar, please PM me with your intentions to do so. For Level 3, Flying Under the Radar earns a player $20 from each player. Correct Accusations earn $40 to the accuser from the accused, and incorrect Accusations lose $60 from the accuser to the accused. Two cheaters accusing each other lose $60 each to the LGT. You all have 24 hours from this post to send in your decisions by PM to me. This round ends at 3:25 pm GMT on Friday, January 18th, 2012. Good luck!
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Post by Alydar on Jan 18, 2013 15:35:36 GMT
Level 3-1: Accusation PhaseAlydar looks at the players, gauging their reactions to the reveals. "Hmm. It would appear none of you like risking accusations. Well, except for Moritaka. Moritaka, are you accusing?" He shakes his head. Alydar looks downcast. "Aha." He glances at the others. "Anyone else? Do you think any of you cheated? Do you want to accuse anyone? No? Well then." Suddenly, Freih speaks up. "You know what? What the heck. I accuse Iain7! Last ditch efforts have to pay out sometimes, right?" "Aha! Hahaha... Well, Freih, it would appear you've spent the last of your money in this game and are out of it. Iain7 did not cheat, nor did anyone in this round. And few accused... Get your acts together if you don't want to end up like Mr. Freih here! Ahahaha!"
AccusationsFreih unsuccessfully accuses Iain7 of cheating. Freih pays $60 to Iain7*.Cyrus wins with his Point 6. Cyrus wins $20 from 10k, Iain7, Moritaka, and Freih*.
Current Standings1st place - 10k: $275 2nd place - Cyrus: $216.87 3rd place - Moritaka: $160 4th place - Iain7: $98.12 5th place - Freih: $0 - ELIMINATED *Freih would go into debt, but that's not allowed. He owes $60 to Iain7 and $20 to Cyrus. As such, Iain7 gets 3/4 of Freih's remaining money ($20.62), and Cyrus gets the remaining 1/4 ($6.87). All numbers are truncated at the cents place. (Yes, I'm late. Blame last-minute decisions.  ) It seems like 10k's lead may be broken soon! A lead of $60 is barely anything in the scheme of things for Level 3... The third-to-last round begins, and who knows what will happen? Will people rig? Will they not? Will they be luckier than of late? Who can tell until all is told? Send in your decisions before 3:35 pm GMT on Saturday, January 19th, 2013.
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Post by Alydar on Jan 19, 2013 16:15:52 GMT
Level 3-2: Rolling Phase"Ahaha, one down, three to go! And three rounds to go, as well! How will you fare? At this point, it's still anyone's game..." The players give him their dice, and he places them in their cups, shaking them and rolling them. First, 10k as always: 2, 3, 2. He gets a Point 3 and rises to first place. Then comes Iain7, and his dice are rolled. 4... 4... So what's the point? Could it be? ...4. Wow, with amazing luck, Iain7 pulls out a Triple 4 and places first! Third is Cyrus, but his rolls just aren't up to par. 3, 6, 2 gives him a No Hand. Next is Moritaka, hoping for anything. He rolls: 4, 3, 4 to get a Point 3 and a tie for second with 10k. Lastly, Freih. Alydar takes the cup, pockets the dice, and quickly throws the cup into the trashcan. The poorly-written "Freih" burns off with the plastic... "Well, this was an interesting round! Has anyone cheated? If so, who? Those are the questions you need to answer, so answer them well! Good luck! Ahahahahahaha!!!" Player
| Rolls
| Placement
| 10k
| | Point 3
| Iain7
| | Triple 4s
| Cyrus
| | No Hand
| Moritaka
| | Point 3
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Rankings1st place: Iain7 - Triple 4s 2nd place: 10k, Moritaka - Point 3 4th place: Cyrus - No Hand (Me? Oversleep? No, whyever would you think such a thing? ) The Accusation Phase starts now. Please send in a list of any accusations you plan to make this round if you would like to make any. In addition, if you cheated and would like to Fly Under the Radar, please PM me with your intentions to do so. For Level 3, Flying Under the Radar earns a player $20 from each player. Correct Accusations earn $40 to the accuser from the accused, and incorrect Accusations lose $60 from the accuser to the accused. Two cheaters accusing each other lose $60 each to the LGT. You all have 24 hours from this post to send in your decisions by PM to me. This round ends at 4:15 pm GMT on Sunday, January 20th, 2012. Good luck!
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Post by Alydar on Jan 20, 2013 16:15:21 GMT
Level 3-2: Accusation Phase
Freih watches on, scowling at the other players in frustration. Meanwhile, Alydar carries on with the game, addressing the other four. "Now, which of you would like to accuse?"
Cyrus steps up. "You know me. I'm playing fair and square. No accusations, no rigging, just testing my luck."
Iain7 remarks, "What? And risk losing this awesome hand? No thank you..."
Moritaka jumps at that. "Hey! He's not lucky enough for that hand! He must have rigged it! And if no one's going to accuse him, I will!"
Thinking long, 10k answers last. "You know, I think Iain7's telling the truth for once. I'm gonna give this round to him."
"Ahahaha! Luck is definitely in Iain7's favor today! A triple in Level 3? AND an accusation on him? He's winning big tonight! ...as are our lovely fellows who Flew Under the Radar... Congratulations, 10k and Moritaka! Ah... Aha. Sadly for you Cyrus, you're missing out on a lot of cash..."
Accusations
Moritaka unsuccessfully accuses Iain7 of cheating. Moritaka pays $60 to Iain7.
10k Flies Under the Radar and collects $20 from Iain7, Cyrus, and Moritaka.
Moritaka Flies Under the Radar and collects $20 from 10k, Iain7, and Cyrus.
Iain7 wins big with his lucky Triple 4s!
Iain7 wins $40 from 10k, Cyrus, and Moritaka.
Current Standings
1st place - 10k: $275
2nd place - Iain7: $238.12
3rd place - Cyrus: $136.87
4th place - Moritaka: $100
That was a close shave for 10k, but he retains his lead for this round! However... will it last for the final two? We begin... the penultimate round!
Send in your decisions before 4:15 pm GMT on Monday, January 21st, 2013.
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Post by Alydar on Jan 21, 2013 17:15:18 GMT
Level 3-3: Rolling PhaseAlydar takes the dice and proceeds to roll them. 10k is first, as usual. He rolls, and they stop: 5... 1... 5... He gains a Point 1 and an easily-beatable first place. And it's beaten right away. Iain7 rolls: 1... 1... no matter, what it beats 10k... 4. Point 4 gets him the lead! Next is Cyrus, crossing his fingers for luck. 3, 3, 5 gets him a Point 5 and a slim lead over Iain7 for first place! Then comes Moritaka, hoping for anything. A 2, then a 3... and then a 6 just doesn't pan out. He gets a No Hand. Player
| Rolls
| Placement
| 10k
| | Point 1
| Iain7
| | Point 4
| Cyrus
| | Point 5
| Moritaka
| | No Hand
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Rankings1st place: Cyrus - Point 5 2nd place: Iain7 - Point 4 3rd place: 10k - Point 1 4th place: Moritaka - No Hand (Sorry, stuff came up.) The Accusation Phase starts now. Please send in a list of any accusations you plan to make this round if you would like to make any. In addition, if you cheated and would like to Fly Under the Radar, please PM me with your intentions to do so. For Level 3, Flying Under the Radar earns a player $20 from each player. Correct Accusations earn $40 to the accuser from the accused, and incorrect Accusations lose $60 from the accuser to the accused. Two cheaters accusing each other lose $60 each to the LGT. You all have 24 hours from this post to send in your decisions by PM to me. This round ends at 5:15 pm GMT on Tuesday, January 22nd, 2012. Good luck!
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Post by Alydar on Jan 22, 2013 17:15:25 GMT
Level 3-3: Accusation Phase
"It's the final round. Almost, at least." "Oh, has anyone beaten 10k?" "No, not yet. He seems unbeatable." "Really? I heard rumors Freih beat him... are you saying those were wrong?" "Oh, that was another game. Freih's horribly lost this game, and Moritaka might be headed down the same path. It's a sad fate." "It's a shame, really. He played a good game so far." "Freih? Are you sure?" "No, no, no... Moritaka. He's gotten some good accusations in, but he's just not willing to rig himself." "That, and he's gotten so many No Hands." "Well, that's just the fault of luck. And look at 10k! See how many he's had? Almost none!" "Ah, but he's rigged a lot, too..." "Yes, yes, we know why he's ahead." "You know, rumor has it he's rigged this round." "Well, I'm going to bet no one accuses him! The idiots!" "You're betting, now? How sure are you? As sure as that hand you just lost?" "As sure as there's not enough cheese for these crackers..."
Alydar addresses the remaining players: "So. Do any of you think any of you have cheated? If so, now's the time to speak up! Anyone? Anyone... Alright. Cyrus wins the round! Ahaha! ...and 10k Flies Under the Radar. Congrats to him for keeping his win! Ahahahahaha! ...good luck, all of you, in the Final Round!"
Accusations
No one accuses, no one loses.
10k Flies Under the Radar and collects $20 from Iain7, Cyrus, and Moritaka.
Cyrus wins with his Point 5.
Cyrus wins $20 from 10k, Iain7, and Moritaka.
Current Standings
1st place - 10k: $315
2nd place - Iain7: $198.12
3rd place - Cyrus: $176.87
4th place - Moritaka: $60
10k retains his lead and gains a little more on the other competitors. With a single round left, things look grim, but is all lost? Remember, anything can happen! Good luck, as we head into the Final Round!
Send in your decisions before 5:15 pm GMT on Wednesday, January 23rd, 2013.
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Post by Alydar on Jan 23, 2013 17:15:29 GMT
Level 3-4: Rolling Phase"Welcome... to the Final Round! Ahahahahahahahaha!!! Well, 10k's lead may be large, but so are the antes! The difference of a few from every player or correct or missed Accusations can spell doom for him... But above else, you have to have the rolls. Let's see what everyone has! Ahaha!" 10k goes first, and his dice roll... 2... 3... no, no, it couldn't be. Could it? 1. The players stare, awestruck, and turn to 10k. He starts off the round with a 1-2-3. That will be hard to beat. ...Iain7 pushes his dice to Alydar in despair, and they're rolled. The 6... followed by the 1 spells bad luck, and it pans out when a 2 comes last. Iain7 has a No Hand and little chance of winning. Next is Cyrus, and his dice are rolled in desperation, with slight hope they'll beat that 1-2-3. But... 3. 3. No, is it really? It's at least placed, but... it's a 3. Cyrus gets Triple 3s and takes the lead just like that! He could win this thing! Finally, Moritaka. Will he get this? The dice are rolled... 4... 2... 2. Moritaka gets a Point 4 and is placed! Whatever hope there is for him is slim, but it's still there! With a miraculous Triple 3s, Cyrus has the lead in this all-important final round. Is it true? Is it false? Who's lying? Who's truthful? A false move here can spell your doom, so choose carefully. The fate of this game rests in your hands... Player
| Rolls
| Placement
| 10k
| | 1-2-3
| Iain7
| | No Hand
| Cyrus
| | Triple 3s
| Moritaka
| | Point 4
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Rankings1st place: Cyrus - Triple 3s 2nd place: 10k - 1-2-3 3rd place: Moritaka - Point 4 4th place: Iain7 - No Hand The Final Accusation Phase starts now. Please send in a list of any accusations you plan to make this round if you would like to make any. In addition, if you cheated and would like to Fly Under the Radar, please PM me with your intentions to do so. For Level 3, Flying Under the Radar earns a player $20 from each player. Correct Accusations earn $40 to the accuser from the accused, and incorrect Accusations lose $60 from the accuser to the accused. Two cheaters accusing each other lose $60 each to the LGT. You all have 24 hours from this post to send in your decisions by PM to me. This round (and the game) ends at 5:15 pm GMT on Thursday, January 24th, 2012. Good luck!
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Post by Alydar on Jan 25, 2013 0:29:03 GMT
Level 3-4: Accusation PhaseAlydar turns to the players. "It's the final round! We have great rolls! What do you all think?" Iain7 speaks up. "Cyrus is lying. He's definitely lying. That's why he's been telling us he's playing truthfully! ...of course he'd rig well at the end and guess we'd not accuse him. But he's a liar! I swear it!" To which Cyrus replies, "Me? Poor, sweet, little Nao? Lie? Oh, wait, I'm not Nao... but neither am I lying! Ha! That's a win well-deserved! Take that, 10k!" 10k just sits their sullenly. "Guys? You know... I Flew Under the Radar. Again. Guys? Anyone?" Moritaka speaks from his chair. And so the round ends, so too does the game. A failed accuser, a successful cheat, a sad loser, and a prideful winner... oh, and that luckless debtor that everyone forgot.
AccusationsIain7 unsuccessfully accuses Cyrus of cheating. Iain7 pays $60 to Cyrus.Moritaka Flies Under the Radar and collects $20 from 10k, Iain7, and Cyrus.Cyrus wins big with his lucky Triple 3s! Cyrus wins $40 from 10k, Iain7, and Moritaka.And without further ado...
FINAL RESULTS
1st place - Cyrus: $336.87
2nd place - 10k: $255
3rd place - Moritaka: $80
4th place - Iain7: 78.12
5th place - Freih: ELIMINATED Cyrus wins big, profiting by 12 Poker Chips! 10k breaks even with his 5, and Moritaka gets a minor loss by gaining 3. Iain7 and Freih are left in last place with nothing to their names... Well, that's what it would be if we were still playing for poker chips! Now for the post-game analysis and why I'm probably not going to run this game anymore. Read it if you want, or don't and skip to the end. I realize it's a lot of text.
As for the things I was talking about with unbalance in this game, I'll start to address them now. I had rolled all of the rolls near the beginning of the game, and I could see how things were going to play out as it got about halfway through. 10k's skillfully-made lead would be broken by the lucky and truthful Cyrus, simply because he was lucky. In this game, a "Nao" strategy (or so Cyrus dubbed it, but I disagree that that's the Nao strategy in this game) only works if you're lucky enough to pull out a large number in the last few rounds. That just happened to happen... and it made me think about just how big a factor luck could be (not would, but could) in this game and how to eliminate it. The first strategy was to do a round-by-round analysis of the game as if there were no rigs or accusations. It went about how you would expect, based on how the game went. 10k kept winning about half the time, maybe more, until Round 7, by which point he had a sizable lead ($137.5 over 2nd place). From there, Iain7 took the lead Round 10 with his Triple 4s, and Cyrus' last-minute wins gave him the final win. The final scores were Cyrus $390, Iain7 $165, 10k $152.5, Moritaka $27.5, Freih $15. If there's inherent bias in this game, it would likely be represented by these numbers, so I tried to figure out how to eliminate the bias as best as possible. One strategy was simply to look at the end-game scenario and see who was best off from there. You take the actual results and subtract the no-rig results and end up with the following: Cyrus -$53.13, Iain7 -$86.88, 10k $102.5, Moritaka $52.5, Freih -$15. It gives an approximate idea of how players did strategy-wise, but there are still problems with it. Freih would have done "better" than Cyrus and Iain7. Maybe you could just get rid of Freih since he was eliminated, but how does that work for players who would be eliminated during a no-rig game? In addition, this becomes more biased in the reverse manner as the game originally was; it becomes harder for the players with better rolls to capitalize off of them. In addition, this only looks at the end-game positions and doesn't focus on where players made good moves or bad moves throughout the game. The next strategy was to look at each round and do a similar thing as above. You would see how much better or worse each player was doing at the time of the game, and you would determine the maximum amount "above average" and the maximum amount "below average" for each player. You would take "above average" - "below average" and get the players' scores that way. Of course, you could have a player who's always below average, in which case the "above average" would be negative, or you could have the reverse where the "below average" would be negative. On to what those results would give you: Cyrus = 40 - 53.13 = -$13.13, Iain7 = 42.5 - 86.88 = -$44.38, 10k = 122.5 - 30 = $92.5, Moritaka = 32.5 - 7.5 = $45, and Freih = 32.5 - 115 = -$82.5. As you can see, it gives a better idea of who played a better strategy. Of course, there are probably still many problems with it. Of those, I've found a few. Players "mis-rigging" gets them a net loss, even though they used good strategy. A player who would have won by rolling but who rigs instead is disadvantaged for using good strategy. A good example of this is Round 1. 10k would have rolled a 4-5-6. Instead, he rigged something smaller and Flew Under the Radar. This was his $30 "below average" period; at every other point, his strategy paid off or left him enough of a buffer to do well. Another problem is that Cyrus' "Nao" strategy is inherently disadvantaged: players almost CANNOT make a net gain over the course of the game by doing nothing, barring "mis-rigs" that I mentioned earlier. That may be ideal (a sort of inactivity penalty), but it's not necessarily how it should go. And again, there are almost definitely problems with this that I haven't found yet. However, to me, it seems like the best way of determining a "winner" would be based on how well their strategy worked as opposed to how well luck worked in their favor. And this strategy seems to take that into account best. But... even playing with how the end-game results are calculated doesn't eliminate all the problems that I found in the game through this playthrough. Before the rehearsal round, we talked about how rigging would be pointless in any situation where the rigger didn't get anything out of it. Thus, we added the Flying Under the Radar rule. Of course, since No Hands inherently can't win and occur so often (probabilistically speaking, of course), allowing rigged No Hands to Fly Under the Radar wouldn't pan out because players would rig to the "easy rig" of a No Hand. The Flying Under the Radar rule fixed part of the problem, but it unbalanced No Hands. When a player gets a No Hand, no one will accuse it because there's no profit in doing so and no threat to letting it go through. When a player gets anything else, there's now a threat to letting it go through. Thus, players with more "natural" No Hands are disadvantaged... 10k had 2 No Hands, Iain7 had 4, Cyrus had 4, Moritaka had 9, Freih had 8. Looking at that, Moritaka and Freih were largely disadvantaged, and 10k was slightly advantaged. That pretty much plays out as you'd expect in the no-rig and even in the actual game. And either No Hand rigs should be able to Fly Under the Radar, or No Hands should be re-rolled until a roll appears. I would go for the former, but I feel it would result in so many No Hand rigs... Now, if 10k had a "slight advantage," how did he then end up in second/third place if No Hands are the problem? That's the thing... they aren't the only problem. 1-2-3 or better rolls are inherently more helpful than other rolls, even if they appear less often. Maybe that should be represented in rigs as well... Or maybe those rolls shouldn't get special treatment! However, it would make sense that they do... Then there's the fact that each round gets significantly more effective in gaining the players money. ...and in a way, that can make the game unbalanced toward luck. So how is that fixed? Making each round the same ante? In a way, that messes with the fluff or the strategy of the game and maybe makes it boring. Making it not actually double each level? In other words, Level 3 would be $15 as the ante instead of $20? That could work... potentially. But we have no idea if it will work enough. And currently a 1-2-3 or better roll in Level 3 can be potentially unbalancing, as we saw here. Sure, everyone knew he was telling the truth, but even so, they didn't want to give the game to 10k, so they didn't bother accusing 10k on a chance. So, the above are my reasons for not running the game again. It was a good game to run, and I hope you all had fun playing it. That said, I believe it's time to move away from this game and to other ones. A new player should be joining soon as an observer, and I expect Liar's Memory to be the next game we play. If people are interested, we can do another game instead/alongside. In terms of other things I'm doing, LGT4 is making steady progress, and hopefully I'll have another game idea to work with soon. Infiltration Game is on its way to the internet, once I can figure out how to work with the program I'm using. But hang around if you want, and I'll continue to run whatever games you guys want to run. And if you don't want to rerun Casino games, you can always check out other LGTs! I'd be happy to run those games as well.
...and now that all's said and done, congratulations to Cyrus for winning! And congratulations to both 10k and Moritaka for playing great games! ...the rest of you... maybe you need to work on your lying a little more. Until next time, and enjoy the crackers!
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, you all forgot to make accusations. Too bad, so sad, but I suppose the risk is too much? In the meantime, Alydar comes out of the back room with a platter of crackers and a digital countdown clock, to make the waiting simpler.
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